Deep learning to assess the effects of land use/land cover and climate change on landslide susceptibility in the Tra Khuc river basin of Vietnam

Abstract

Understanding the negative effects of climate change and changes to land use/land cover on natural hazards is an important feature of sustainable development worldwide, as these phenomena are inextricably linked with natural hazards such as landslides. The contribution of this study is an attempt to develop a state-of-the-art method to assess the effects of climate change and changes in land use/land cover on landslide susceptibility in the Tra Khuc river basin in Vietnam. The method is based on machine learning and remote sensing algorithms, namely radial basis function neural networks–search and rescue optimization (RBFNN–SARO), radial basis function neural network–queuing search algorithm (RBFNN–QSA), radial basis function neural network–life choice-based optimizer (RBFNN–LCBO), radial basis function neural network–dragonfly optimization (RBFNN–DO). All proposed models performed well, with AUC value of >0.9. The RBFNN–QSA model performed best, with an AUC value of 0.98, followed by RBFNN–SARO (AUC = 0.97), RBFNN–LCBO (AUC = 0.95), RBFNN–DO (AUC = 0.93), and support vector machine (SVM; AUC = 0.92). The results show that both climate and land use/land cover change greatly in the future: Precipitation increases 18% by 2030 and 25.1% by 2050; the total production forest, protected forest and built-up area change considerably between 2010 and 2050. These changes influence landslide susceptibility: The area of high and very high landslide susceptibility decrease by approximately 100 and 300 km2 respectively in the study area from 2010 to 2050. The findings of this study can support decision-makers in formulating appropriate strategies to reduce damage from landslides, such as limiting construction in areas where future landslides are predicted. Although this study applies to a particular region of Vietnam, the findings can be applied in other mountainous regions around the world.

Keywords

• landslide susceptibility
• radial basis function neural network
• tra khuc river basin
• vietnam