Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Zian Zhuang; Shi Zhao; Qianying Lin; Peihua Cao; Yijun Lou; Lin Yang; Shu Yang; Daihai He; Li Xiao

International Journal of Infectious Diseases (Jun 2020)

Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Zian Zhuang,
Shi Zhao,
Qianying Lin,
Peihua Cao,
Yijun Lou,
Lin Yang,
Shu Yang,
Daihai He,
Li Xiao

Affiliations

Zian Zhuang: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Shi Zhao: JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese, University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
Qianying Lin: Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
Peihua Cao: Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
Yijun Lou: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Lin Yang: School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Corresponding authors.
Shu Yang: College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
Daihai He: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Corresponding authors.
Li Xiao: College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China; Corresponding authors.

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 95
pp. 308 – 310

Abstract

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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

Published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1201-9712 (Print); 1878-3511 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: Netherlands
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases
Website: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/international-journal-of-infectious-diseases/

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