NEW APPROACHES TO TESTING ECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES BY THE ECONOMETRICAL MODELING OF THE REPORTED FINANCIAL ELEMENTS

Abstract

The analysis of economic vulnerabilities is a key element in building medium and long-term economic development strategies. Through the study, we aim to objectively assess the trend vulnerabilities that affect the economic development of a company and the conceptualization of an econometric model for identifying these vulnerabilities with the transposition of the results on the prudential behaviour segment in the elaboration of the economic development strategies of the Romanian companies. The study was conducted on the basis of the analysis of the dynamics revenue and expenditure accounts for a period of 5 years. The companies analysed are among the top 15 largest firms in Suceava County on turnover. The research is bivalent, with the theoretical part focused on the study of the specialized literature, and the empirical part oriented towards the analysis of data sets, systematisation of consolidated databases, statistical databases testing and econometric modelling. The resulting model is based on dynamic analysis and extrapolations made through the Econometric Model through Forecast features at 95% confidence intervals, providing users of financial statements with a pragmatic tool for early vulnerability assessment and ex-ante adjustment of medium and long term development strategies of companies.

Keywords

• vulnerability
• financial statements
• econometric model
• financial analysis
• forecasts.