Analysis and Prediction of Incidence and Mortality Trends of Three Enteric Infectious Diseases in China from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Background Intestinal infectious diseases are one of the common infectious diseases. Analysis and prediction of their epidemic status can provide certain reference for the prevention and treatment of intestinal infectious diseases. Objective To understand the incidence and mortality of three enteric infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict their morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2030, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of intestinal infectious diseases. Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD), the incidence and mortality data of three enteric infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The change rate (%) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to describe the changing trends of the above three intestinal infectious diseases. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the morbidity and mortality of the above three enteric infectious diseases in China from 2020 to 2030. Results There was no statistically significant change in the incidence of diarrheal diseases from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC=0.09, P>0.05), while the incidence of typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever and invasive non-typhoid salmonella intestinal infections showed a downward trend (EAPC were -4.0% and -0.64% respectively, P<0.05). The mortality rates of diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections all showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC were -8.39%, -3.38%, and -1.87%, respectively, P<0.05). Among all age groups, the incidence of diarrheal disease among people aged ≥70 years in 2019 was the highest among all age groups, and it was on the rise (EAPC=0.27, P<0.05). The mortality rates of the above three intestinal infectious diseases in all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend (P<0.05). The ARIMA model prediction results show that the incidence of diarrheal diseases in China will be on an upward trend from 2020 to 2030, while the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever and invasive non-typhoid Salmonella will be on a downward trend. The estimated incidence of the above three diseases was 58 793.04/105, 5.26/105, 0.447/105, respectively. In addition, the mortality rates of diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoid Salmonella in our country will all show a downward trend from 2020 to 2030. The mortality rates of the above three diseases in 2030 were expected to be 0.214/105 and 0.039/105, 0.026/105, respectively. Conclusion The mortality rates of diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China will show a downward trend in 2030. Except for the incidence of diarrheal diseases, which will show an upward trend, the incidence of the other two diseases will show a downward trend. It reminds the government and relevant health departments to pay attention to diarrheal diseases and adopt different prevention and control measures for different groups of people.

Keywords

• diarrhea|typhoid fever|paratyphoid fever|invasive non-typhoidal salmonella|incidence|mortality|trend prediction|arima model