Modeling and simulation of fault propagation of combined heat and electricity energy systems under extreme cold disaster based on Markov process

Abstract

Extremely cold weather is the most common disaster faced by combined heat and electricity energy systems during winter days. Assessing the damage caused by the disaster to the system, and preventing disasters all need to simulate the operating state of the system. This paper proposes a cascading fault simulation model suitable for combined heat and electricity energy systems during extreme cold disasters. A multi-time scale Markov process is used in this model to describe the propagation process of cascading faults caused by disasters. Moreover, the impact of extreme cold on the equipment performance is added to the Markov state. By this model, cascading fault events and the fault probability of the system under a given disaster scene can be obtained. Test results show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords

• Markov process
• Cascading fault
• Disaster
• Combined heat and electrical energy systems