Evaluating the impacts of renewable energy action plans: A synthetic control approach to the Turkish case

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) that was prepared under the (2009/28/EC) Directive of the European Commission by using Türkiye as a case study. We aimed to reveal the causal impacts of the plan on renewable energy generation based on different technologies such as hydro, wind, and solar, along with the impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. To do this, we used the synthetic control method. The study's outcome indicates that NREAP has served as a promising treatment policy for Türkiye's deployment of renewable energy potential. The total treatment effect is 14%, mainly driven by increases in solar and wind shares, while no significant impact was observed on the hydro share of electricity. Moreover, our analysis found no treatment effect on greenhouse gas emissions, and placebo tests supported the robustness of these results. The analysis did not reveal any evidence of a treatment effect on greenhouse gas emissions.

Keywords

• Impact assessment
• Synthetic control
• Energy transition