Projection of Extreme Temperature Events over the Mediterranean and Sahara Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Models
Hassen Babaousmail,
Brian Ayugi,
Adharsh Rajasekar,
Huanhuan Zhu,
Collins Oduro,
Richard Mumo,
Victor Ongoma
Affiliations
Hassen Babaousmail
Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Wuxi 214105, China
Brian Ayugi
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Centre of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Adharsh Rajasekar
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Centre of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Huanhuan Zhu
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Collins Oduro
Research Institute for History of Science and Technology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Richard Mumo
Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Private Bag 16, Palapye 10071, Botswana
Victor Ongoma
International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco
Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding cold days. Notably, warm spell duration index (WSDI) and summer days (SU) have a positive trend in both timelines over the entire study area. There is a need to simulate how climate sensitive sectors, such as water and agriculture, are likely to be affected by projected changes under different scenarios for informed decision making in the choice and implementation of adaptation and mitigation effective measures.
