Heuristic and Bayesian Tornado Prediction in Complex Terrain of Southern Wyoming

Abstract

A heuristic technique for tornado forecasting in the complex terrain of southern Wyoming is proposed for the weather sciences community. This novel approach is based on seasonal tornado climatology and observed mesoscale conditions obtained from in-situ surface and Doppler weather radar sources. The methodology is applied to four severe thunderstorm events which formed tornadoes during the spring and summer months of 2018 and 2019 in Albany County of Wyoming. Tornadic evolution is associated with supercell thunderstorms forming along moisture convergence axes of a dryline and updraft interactions with air mass stretching and shearing over the complex terrain. Applying Bayes’ theorem to each case, there is a low to high (30 to 80%) posterior probability associated with vortex detection.

Keywords

• tornado
• weather forecasting
• heuristic rules
• Bayes’ theorem