Assessment of the feasibility of a conservative forecast of changes in the black sea level, taking into account the prehistory of the hydrothermal regime of its catchment area

Abstract

Changes in the water surface level at any part of the World Ocean coast significantly affect the intensity of coastal destruction, and can cause considerable damage to the population and ecosystems of coastal zones. When planning measures to protect the Black Sea coast from the dangerous consequences of further sea level rise, its forecast is necessary, which has satisfactory justification and sufficient advance time. Existing predictive models ensure the development of forecasts with the required advance time, but often their justifiability is low. Therefore, the assessment of the feasibility of forecasts of sea level changes corresponding to various scenarios of further changes in the regional climate is an urgent problem of climatology, environmental safety and environmental management. The scenario of further changes in the indicator under consideration, which assumes that their statistical properties will remain the same in the future as they were in the past, is among the likely ones. To develop a forecast of the process under study that corresponds to this scenario and is optimal by the criterion of minimum standard error, the method of linear multiple regression can be applied. The main factors determining changes in the Black Sea level are water balance characteristics, in particular river runoff, whose contribution to the total volume of water entering the sea is significant and depends on the area of the catchment area and the amount of precipitation. The purpose of this work is to develop forecasts of sea level changes based on taking into account changes in the hydrothermal regime of the catchment area, and to assess their feasibility with a 1-year lead time. When assessing the feasibility of forecasts, the prehistory of changes in the Black Sea level according to measurements from the Yalta and Sevastopol marine hydrometeorological stations and the hydrothermal regime of its catchment area are taken into account. The composition of predictors of predictive models has been determined, which ensures satisfactory justification of their forecasts. It has been established that the suspension of the Black Sea level rise in 2011-2023 was largely caused by changes in the hydrothermal regime of its basin.