Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Coronary Artery Ectasia

Abstract

Coronary artery ectasia (CAE) is a rare finding and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, prognostic factors are not well studied and no prognostication tool is available. In a derivation set comprising 729 consecutive CAE patients between January 2009 and June 2014, a nomogram was developed using Cox regression. Total of 399 patients from July 2014 to December 2015 formed the validation set. The primary outcome was 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a component of cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Besides the clinical factors, we used quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) and defined QCA classification of four types, according to max diameter (p p = 0.90 in the derivation and p = 0.47 in the validation set). This study developed and validated a simple-to-use method for assessing 5-year MACE risk in patients with CAE.

Keywords

• coronary artery ectasia
• cardiovascular death
• myocardial infarction
• prediction model