Forecasting Guangdong’s Marine Science and Technology, Marine Economy, and Employed Persons by Coastal Regions—Based on Rolling Grey MGM(1,m) Model

Abstract

The development of marine scientific and technological innovation is an important force for realizing the high-quality development of the marine economy. The purpose of this paper is to predict the development trend of marine science and technology development, marine economy, and employed persons by coastal regions in Guangdong Province, and to give policy suggestions for the future direction of the development of marine technology in Guangdong. Considering the new information priority principle, this paper uses the data from 2011 to 2016 to predict the development trend of marine science and technology, marine economy, and employed persons by coastal regions in Guangdong Province from 2017 to 2022 with the rolling RMGM(1,m) model. It is found that the level of marine science and technology and marine economy in Guangdong maintains stable growth, but marine science and technology capabilities still need to be strengthened. On the one hand, the research reveals the development trend of Guangdong’s marine science and technology innovation and marine economy, and it provides a direction for the high-quality development of Guangdong’s marine economy. On the other hand, the research confirms the validity of the MGM(1,m) model and enriches the research field of grey forecasting models.

Keywords

• marine economy
• marine science and technology
• GM(1,1) mode
• RMGM(1,m) model