Geospatial analysis of mortality risk from road traffic crashes in Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria

Abstract

The objective of the study was to present a novel analytical approach using Nigerian trauma registry data to determine risks and of road traffic crash-related mortality for patients treated at National Trauma Centre, Abuja. Patient characteristics were compared between those who died at the hospital (n = 118) and those who survived (n = 2018). Multiple logistic regression and cluster analyses were used to identify risks of mortality and of high mortality and injury rates. The patient’s status as pedestrian (p < .0001), and whether the crash occurred on an expressway or transition zone between expressways and local roads (p = 0.0045) were significantly associated with mortality. Cluster analysis further isolated significant of mortality rate (Moran’s I = 0.31), pedestrian injury rate (Moran’s I = 0.34), and expressway/transition zone injury rate (Moran’s I = 0.18). For patients who survived to hospitalization at National Hospital Abuja, pedestrians involved in a crash and those whose crashes occurred on expressways/transition zones were at higher risk of mortality. High mortality and pedestrian and expressway/transition zone injury rates isolated to five contiguous administrative wards in Abuja. These analysis methods can be applied to determine risks and hotspots of crashes, injuries, and mortality in various settings.

Keywords

• Abuja
• cluster analysis
• GIS
• hotspot
• road traffic injury
• trauma registry