Grey Prediction Analysis on the Scale of Cross-Border E-Commerce Retail Import Transaction in Hainan

Abstract

Combined with the policy of Hainan free trade port, the advantages of cross-border e-commerce enable the retail import cross-border e-commerce of Hainan free trade port develop rapidly, but Hainan cross-border e-commerce started late, and the data is very limited, so there is almost no reference econometric model. Therefore, this paper used the grey prediction GM (1,1) model to make a short-term prediction analysis of Hainan cross-border e-commerce retail import transaction scale, and used the residual correction model to improve the prediction accuracy, hoping to provide data reference and relevant policy basis for subsequent researchers and managers by analyzing the results in many aspects.