Wavelet transform-based trend analysis of streamflow and precipitation in Upper Blue Nile River basin

Abstract

Study region: Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia Study focus: This study aims to determine possible trends in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation and streamflow series. The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) was used to obtain detailed information about the time-frequency conditions of six meteorological and five streamflow stations during 1984–2014. The Mann-Kendall test was also applied to the original and the DWT components to determine which periodicities are dominant in reproducing the observed trends. The combined DWT and Mann-Kendall test has not been explored in the UBNRB context. We used three criteria to determine a suitable wavelet, decomposition level, and signal extension mode. From these criteria, the bias ratio between the wavelet approximation series and the original time series was proposed and explored in this study. New hydrological insights for the region: Results show that almost all the precipitation stations experience an insignificant but increasing trend, whereas the streamflow stations exhibit an increasing trend at a 5% significance level. The combined use of DWT and the Mann-Kendall test show that periodic events up to 4 years are more influential in affecting the observed trends.

Keywords

• Precipitation, streamflow
• Trend analysis
• Wavelet transform
• Mann–Kendall test