Analyzing the evolution of the threat al-Shabaab poses to Kenya post-Westgate attack period

Abstract

In the last decade, al-Shabaab has carried out at least thirty terrorist attacks in Kenya, killing hundreds of people and causing damage to public and private infrastructure. The main objective of the research is to analyze the evolution of al-Shabaab terrorist incidents in Kenya in the post-Westgate attack period with regards to the nature of attacks. It can be seen there has been a shift from hard to soft targets, since after 2013 the group’s modus operandi has been characterized by attacks against health and education services and critical infrastructure in Kenya. By analyzing the changes that have taken place in the last 10 years in the security-political and economic-social landscapes as well as raising the questions why Kenya is targeted and in fact is attacked more frequently than other neighboring and Troop Contributing Countries, this paper argues that even after the withdrawal of Kenyan troops from Somalia, attacks on Kenya will not stop. The reason behind this is the abundance of strategic targets in the country, which can be used by al-Shabaab for propaganda purposes. Every terrorist organization needs the media to remain visible and the continuous flow of recruits to survive. Therefore attacks on Kenya are meant to guarantee the survival of al-Shabaab.

Keywords

• al-Shabaab
• Kenya
• security
• politics
• society
• economics