A study on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 considering the impact of asymptomatic infection

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To analyse and evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we establish an improved COVID-19 infectious disease dynamics model. We fit the epidemic data in the four time periods corresponding to the selected 614G, Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants and obtain the proportion of asymptomatic persons among the infected persons gradually increased and with the increase of the detection ratio, the cumulative number of cases has dropped significantly, but the decline in the proportion of asymptomatic infections is not obvious. Therefore, in view of the hidden transmission of asymptomatic infections, the cooperation between various epidemic prevention and control policies is required to effectively curb the spread of the epidemic.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Asymptomatic infections
• Control reproduction number
• Lyapunov function
• Data fitting
• 34A34