Optimal Prediction of Individual Vessel Trajectories Based on Sparse Gaussian Processes

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of ship encounter positions is crucial for preventing collisions at sea. This paper presents a framework for predicting a ship’s trajectory using a sparse Gaussian process. The proposed method effectively addresses the limitations of existing full Gaussian processes, specifically the significant storage requirements and time complexity associated with data training. The model is trained using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data on trajectories, with hyperparameters optimized through a genetic algorithm. Experimental analysis demonstrates that the proposed model reduces average time complexity by 61.3 s and improves average prediction error to 9.2 m compared to full Gaussian-process-based models.

Keywords

• trajectory prediction
• Gaussian processes
• genetic algorithm
• collision avoidance
• autonomous surface vessel