Estimating survival rates in ecological studies with small unbalanced sample sizes: an alternative Bayesian point estimator

Abstract

Increasingly, the survival rates in experimental ecology are presented using odds ratios or log response ratios, but the use of ratio metrics has a problem when all the individuals have either died or survived in only one replicate. In the empirical ecological literature, the problem often has been ignored or circumvented by different, more or less ad hoc approaches. Here, it is argued that the best summary statistic for communicating ecological results of frequency data in studies with small unbalanced samples may be the mean of the posterior distribution of the survival rate. The developed approach may be particularly useful when effect size indexes, such as odds ratios, are needed to compare frequency data between treatments, sites or studies.

Keywords

• frequency data
• binomial distribution
• small sample size
• unbalanced design
• effect size index
• log response ratio