Life strategies and the long-term climate-driven dynamics of the endemic Caucasian plant Fritillaria latifolia Willd.

Abstract

The rare endemic plant Fritillaria latifolia Willd. growing in subalpine meadows of the Western and Central Caucasus has the SR life strategy of life. The ecological and phytocenotic patience enables this species to withstand the impact of limiting factors, such as high anthropogenic load and interspecific competition, for a long period of time. F. latifolia rapidly invades free territories by increasing the number of its individuals (an explerent component of the life strategy) in case of moderate grazing and low interspecific competition. The mean air temperature in spring (below –8°C and above 4°C) and the maximum air temperature in February (below –4 °C and above 0 °C) are the major limiting abiotic factors for the species. Therefore, the abundance of F. latifolia is highest in mountainous areas of the Western Caucasus with a warmer climate. In accordance with the predicted trends of climate change by 2050, the geographical range of the species may expand by 4.40 times in the Central and Eastern Caucasus. The area of optimum habitats for the species, where the chance to find it is 80–100%, may increase by 10.51 times. A significant habitat reduction is also predicted for F. latifolia in the Western Caucasus.

Keywords

• endemic species
• caucasus
• mountain areas
• life strategy
• maxent
• spatial modeling
• climate change
• forecast