Risk assessment of typhoon storm surge based on a simulated annealing algorithm and the least squares method: a case study in Guangdong Province, China

Abstract

Under global warming, the risk level of storm surge disasters in coastal areas has substantially increased. Guangdong Province is among the provinces most affected by typhoon storm surges in China. The typhoon risk characteristics of this region play an important role in regional development and disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the theory of disaster risk, this study constructs a risk assessment model based on the regional characteristics of Guangdong Province and an indicator system selected in previous work. It optimizes the model using a simulated annealing algorithm and the least squares method. The optimization model was used to assess the hazard, vulnerability, disaster resilience, and risk capability of cities in Guangdong Province from 2001 to 2014. The results indicate that the hazard is related to the typhoon landing area for a single typhoon storm surge disaster. The hazard in the typhoon landing areas is undoubtedly higher than in the regions far away from the typhoon, but their risk capability is not proportional to the risk level. For many years of average typhoon storm surge disasters, cities' hazard, vulnerability, and risk capability levels have increased from inland to coastal areas. The level of resilience is not related to the location but to the city's development indicators. Zhanjiang city has the highest risk level.

Keywords

• Simulated annealing algorithm
• Least squares
• Typhoon storm surge
• Risk assessment
• Guangdong Province