Regional air-quality forecasting for the Pacific Northwest using MOPITT/TERRA assimilated carbon monoxide MOZART-4 forecasts as a near real-time boundary condition

Abstract

Results from a regional air quality forecast model, AIRPACT-3, were compared to AIRS carbon monoxide column densities for the spring of 2010 over the Pacific Northwest. AIRPACT-3 column densities showed high correlation (<i>R</i> > 0.9) but were significantly biased (~25%) with consistent under-predictions for spring months when there is significant transport from Asia. The AIRPACT-3 CO bias relative to AIRS was eliminated by incorporating dynamic boundary conditions derived from NCAR's MOZART forecasts with assimilated MOPITT carbon monoxide. Changes in ozone-related boundary conditions derived from MOZART forecasts are also discussed and found to affect background levels by &plusmn; 10 ppb but not found to significantly affect peak ozone surface concentrations.