Bridging the gap - estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel

Abstract

Objectives: Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases. Methods: To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis. Using these estimates, we assessed potential healthcare burden for winter 2022/23 in different scenarios with varying assumptions on transmissibility, pathogenicity, new variants, and vaccine booster campaigns in ordinary differential equation models. Results: We included 9921 participants from eight German regions. While 85% of individuals were located in one of the two highest protection categories, hospitalization estimates from scenario modeling were highly dependent on viral variant characteristics ranging from 30-300% compared to the 02/2021 peak. Our results were openly communicated and published to an epidemic panel network and a newly established modeling network. Conclusions: We demonstrate feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel to provide complex immune protection levels for inclusion in dynamic disease burden modeling scenarios.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• SEIR
• ODE Model
• IGRA
• Humoral immunity
• Scenarios