International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (Apr 2018)
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM
Abstract
Following up the agricultural policy in Morocco and enforcing it, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP) launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereals’ supply. Meantime, despite their significant nutritional role, little attention has been paid to the demand side. This paper intends to perform an econometric analysis of the demand of five main cereals - Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice- using a linear version of the flexible Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS model). A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) approach has been applied to the demand system equations with annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2015. At the overall, regular econometric restrictions (stability, structural separability, validity, etc.) have been respected our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.
