An epidemic-economic model for COVID-19

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model to study the epidemic and economic consequences of COVID-19, with a focus on the interaction between the disease transmission, the pandemic management, and the economic growth. We consider both the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections and incorporate the effectiveness of disease control into the respective transmission rates. Meanwhile, the progression of the pandemic and the evolution of the susceptible, infectious and recovered population groups directly impact the mitigation and economic development levels. We fit this model to the reported COVID-19 cases and unemployment rates in the US state of Tennessee, as a demonstration of a real-world application of the modeling framework.

Keywords

• covid-19
• compartmental modeling
• data fitting
• equilibrium analysis
• the epidemic and economic consequences