Inflow Flood Simulation and Risk Analysis of Cascade Reservoirs

Abstract

The risk of flood control in cascade reservoirs reflects the possibility of unforeseen events in upstream reservoirs under certain space-time conditions during the operation of flood control. Using @RISK software and a stochastic simulation model to simulate the inflow flood of cascade reservoirs, the flood routing of cascade reservoirs and the risk analysis of the highest water level were carried out based on the flood regulation rules of Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs. The results of simulation calculations show that the risk rate of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoir is lower than its design flood standard, which can ensure the safety of flood control.