Incorporating the field border effect to reduce the predicted uncertainty of pollen dispersal model in Asia

Abstract

Abstract The presence of the field border (FB), such as roadways or unplanted areas, between two fields is common in Asian farming system. This study evaluated the effect of the FB on the cross-pollination (CP) and predicted the CP rate in the field considering and not considering FB. Three experiments including 0, 6.75, and 7.5 m width of the FB respectively were conducted to investigate the effect of distance and the FB on the CP rate. The dispersal models combined kernel and observation model by calculating the parameter of observation model from the output of kernel. These models were employed to predict the CP rate at different distances. The Bayesian method was used to estimate parameters and provided a good prediction with uncertainty. The highest average CP rates in the field with and without FB were 74.29% and 36.12%, respectively. It was found that two dispersal models with the FB effect displayed a higher ability to predict average CP rates. The correlation coefficients between actual CP rates and CP rates predicted by the dispersal model combined zero-inflated Poisson observation model with compound exponential kernel and modified Cauchy kernel were 0.834 and 0.833, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive uncertainty was reducing using the dispersal models with the FB effect.