Determination of Factors Influencing Road Transport Demand: Evidence from Croatia

Abstract

Effective forecasting of road transport demand is vital for optimizing transport planning and system efficiency. Despite technological and methodological advancements, the accuracy of these forecasts has not improved significantly over the past several decades, with typical errors ranging from 20% to 35%. These inaccuracies often result in either under- or over-capacitated transport systems, leading to unforeseen economic and financial consequences. This research focuses on factors that have an impact on road transport demand, based on research conducted in Croatia over the period from 2004 to 2016. It identifies three key impact groups—traffic and transport, economy, and demography—that impact road transport demand. The findings indicate that the annual rates of change in the number of registered motor vehicles have the most significant influence on road transport demand trends. Other key factors include real net wage growth, GDP growth rates, and the rate of domestic tourist arrivals. Additionally, the analysis reveals a statistically significant difference in transport demand intensity between motorways and state roads, highlighting the importance of considering unique traffic patterns in infrastructure planning. These insights provide a robust foundation for developing more accurate forecasting models and improving transport policy and investment strategies.

Keywords

• road transport
• transport planning
• road transport demand