Ziyuan Kexue (May 2024)
Structural drivers of carbon emission growth in China’s industrial sectors: A decomposition method by coupling SDA and LMDI
Abstract
[Objective] Technological progress and the adjustment of demand structure have provided structural drivers for the low-carbon transformation of industrial sectors. By decomposing various factors that affect the growth of carbon emissions, the analysis of the above changes will provide a theoretical support for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies. [Methods] This study, by coupling two classical decomposition methods of structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI), developed input-output tables from 2005 to 2020 with comparable prices data, and identified the driving factors of carbon emission growth of industrial sectors at the whole and specific sector levels. [Results] (1) From 2005 to 2020, the carbon emissions of the industrial sectors increased from 4.867 × 109 tons to 10.677 × 109 tons, while the five-year average growth rate has dropped to less than 2%. From the perspective of the demand side, more high-carbon emission sectors were in the downstream of the industrial chain. (2) Among the factors related to technological progress, the negative contribution of energy intensity and production structure effect were stronger than that of energy structure effect. Among the factors related to demand structure, the positive contribution of investment expansion effect was always stronger than that of consumption and export change effect. Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the carbon emission growth impact of the consumption driving effect and the carbon emission reduction impact of the production structure effect have increased significantly, which means that intersectoral technological progress has begun to dominate the carbon emission reduction effect. (3) During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the carbon emissions of the resource processing industry, electric power industry, gas and water production and supply industry, and services industry were continuously growing. Among them, the resource processing industry was mainly affected by the investment expansion effect, and the other two types of industries were mainly affected by consumption driving effect. The carbon emissions of mining industry, textile and light industry, and machinery and electronics industry have all shifted from the historical carbon emission growth stage to carbon emission reduction stage. Among them, the mining industry was mainly affected by the import substitution effect, and the other two types of industries were mainly affected by the production structure effect. [Conclusion] After 2015, the effectiveness of various carbon emission driving factors has changed significantly. The adjustment of final demand structure and energy structure, coordinated emission reduction of the industrial chain, and optimization of carbon-related markets are the focus of carbon emission reduction of industrial sectors in the future.
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