Evaluation of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction Skills for Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea in FGOALS-f2
Jinxiao Li,
Qun Tian,
Zili Shen,
Zixiang Yan,
Majun Li,
Jiaqing Xue,
Yaoxian Yang,
Lingjun Zeng,
Yuxin Zang,
Siyuan Li
Affiliations
Jinxiao Li
Shanghai Investigation, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200434, China
Qun Tian
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510641, China
Zili Shen
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
Zixiang Yan
Shanghai Investigation, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200434, China
Majun Li
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Jiaqing Xue
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Climate and Application Research, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Yaoxian Yang
Key Laboratory for Land Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Lingjun Zeng
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Yuxin Zang
Shanghai Investigation, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200434, China
Siyuan Li
Shanghai Investigation, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200434, China
Based on 35-year (1981–2015) ensemble (24 members) hindcasts of the IAP/LASG global seasonal prediction system named FGOALS-f2 V1.0 (FGOALS-f2), the tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal prediction skills over the South China Sea (SCS) during the TC peak season (July–November) are evaluated. Starting the prediction from June 20th, FGOALS-f2 can well capture the seasonal mean characteristics for both the genesis location and track of TCs over the SCS. For seasonal anomalous TC numbers, FGOALS-f2 underestimates the maximum and minimum of the TC number compared to the observation. The temporal correlation coefficients (TCCs) between FGOALS-f2 and the observation are 0.39 for the TC number and 0.51 for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the SCS, respectively, which are both above the 95% significant level. Additionally, FGOALS-f2 has acceptable prediction skill for the seasonal mean number of TCs landing on three areas (coastal southeastern China, Indochina Peninsula, and Philippines) surrounding the SCS. The skillful prediction of SCS TCs could be ascribed to the well-predicted tropical anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA), TC and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (TC-ENSO) relations, and Genesis potential index (GPI).
