Scenarios of the Polish economy dynamics in 2017-2022 on the Ramsey type model basis

Abstract

The article contains a methodology of identification of the dynamic Ramsey model for the Polish economy. It includes two different scenarios of the development of the Polish economy for five years (2017-2022) and the comparison of the forecasts made on their basis. The first scenario is built using the model parameters estimated basing on the data for the period 1991-2016. The second scenario considers a more recent period (2010-2016), which is picked according to a hypothesis that the statistical data of this period describing the labor force dynamics shows its trend more representatively. The method of model identification is based on evaluating the proximity between the calculated and statistical time series of macroeconomic indicators (output, consumption, investment, export, import). The GDP and investments volumes are predicted for the five years’ period and the visualization of the forecasted trend is made for the both identified models.

Keywords

• ramsey model
• polish economy
• dynamic model
• parameter identification
• computer simulation
• economy forecasting
• forecast scenarios
• gross domestic product
• investments