Skillful seasonal prediction of wind energy resources in the contiguous United States

Abstract

Abstract A key challenge with the wind energy utilization is that winds, and thus wind power, are highly variable on seasonal to interannual timescales because of atmospheric variability. There is a growing need of skillful seasonal wind energy prediction for energy system planning and operation. Here we demonstrate model’s capability in producing skillful seasonal wind energy prediction over the U.S. Great Plains during peak energy seasons (winter and spring), using seasonal prediction products from a climate model. The dominant source of that skillful prediction mainly comes from year-to-year variations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific, which alters large-scale wind and storm track patterns over the United States. In the Southern Great Plains, the model can predict strong year-to-year wind energy changes with high skill multiple months in advance. Thus, this seasonal wind energy prediction capability offers potential benefits for optimizing wind energy utilization during peak energy production seasons.