A Forecast Model for Assessing Tourist Flows with Regard to the Additive Seasonality Factor Using the Example of Ivano-Frankivsk Region

Abstract

The aim of the article is to study and analyze trends in the development of the tourism sector with the application of econometric modeling and forecasting methods, using the example of the Ivano-Frankivsk region. The paper analyzes the current trends in tourist flows using the example of Ivano-Frankivsk region in the following areas: total number of tourists served by tour operators and travel agents; number of domestic, outbound and inbound (foreign) tourists. Based on exponential models, which are relatively easy to implement, forecasts accounting for the choice of the final form of the models with the use of the criteria of the minimum mean square error or damped forecast are built. By means of a linear trend model with additive seasonality, additive seasonality indicators are calculated for the variable which reflects the number of tourists visiting Ivano-Frankivsk region. Based on the Winters model, there performed a forecast of the number of tourists who rent rooms in tourist collective accommodations, which made it possible to determine actual retrospective values and forecast the number of tourists in 2020 in Ivano-Frankivsk region.

Keywords

• tourism sector of ukraine
• tourist flows
• forecasting
• model
• region
• seasonality