Air transport risk modelling simulation of the impact of the sanctions on Russia

Abstract

The article considers development scenarios and options for adapting Russia’s aircraft fleet to the impact of the sanctions changes on the transport industry and the consequences of it. The main issues on the limitation of the spare parts and materials for aircraft supply have been structured. Alternative options and adjustments to the shortage of components to support aircraft flights have been described. The analysis of the current civil aviation fleet of the country has been carried out and the normative service life of different class categories aircraft studied. The dynamics of changes in the state aircraft fleet over the last 10 years (since the beginning of the sanctions politics has a starting point from the accession of the Republic of Crimea in 2014) has been considered. The short-term prospects of the aviation industry have been defined and recommendations for improvement and a set of measures for adaptation suggested.

Keywords

• aircraft fleet
• modelling
• transport industry
• development scenarios
• sanctions