Geodynamic Risk Assessments for Oil and Gas Industry of the Arctic Zone

Abstract

The article shows that the depletion of existing oil and gas fields leads to the transfer of the main hydrocarbons production to the Arctic zone of the Globe, where their significant reserves are concentrated. It is stated that the management of geodynamic risks in the territories of oil and gas basins is associated with the use of mathematical modeling methods. Models for assessing geodynamic risks are divided into deterministic, probabilistic, and based on the use of the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy sets. To solve the problem of risk classification of the Arctic zone territories in relation to the location of oil and gas facilities, fuzzy models were used. The method of solving problems of managing geodynamic risks in the territories containing oil and gas complexes allows you to rank objects according to the degree of vulnerability in relation to the manifestation of geodynamic hazards. It is concluded that this approach makes it possible to justify high-quality management decisions in ensuring the safety of oil and gas complexes.

Keywords

• oil and gas industry
• geodynamic risk
• territory
• modeling
• assessment
• fuzzy model
• hazard minimization