Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Spread with Vaccination in Mataram City

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public health worldwide.. Mathematical modeling is considered an alternative tool for understanding real-life problems, including the dynamics of COVID-19 spread. This is an applied research that purpose adds vaccination to Zeb et al. (2020) SEIQR model of COVID-19 spread and examines the dynamic of COVID-19 spread in Mataram City. First, we construct the new model by making assumptions. The fixed point and basic reproduction number (R_0 ) are then used to analyze the model using the next-generation matrix method. The next-generation matrix method is utilized to estimate the R_0 in a compartmental disease model. Two fixed points are acquired, specifically the disease-free fixed point, which is locally asymptotically stable under the condition R_01 indicated by Lyapunov function. The population dynamics when R_01 can also be observed through numerical simulation. The results of a numerical simulation indicate that giving the proportion of number vaccinated 62 per cent is effective in suppressing the number of infections.

Keywords

• covid-19
• vaccination
• mathematical model
• basic reproduction number
• routh hurwitz criterion
• lyapunov function
• mathematical model.