Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period

Abstract

The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate potential future changes of temperature indices in Poland for the period 2011–2030. The model is forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM data from World Data Centre (WDCC) database for the 1971–1990 reference period and 2011–2030 projection period under SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios. Model output statistics methods are used to transform simulated minimum and maximum temperature data into realistic data. Selected indices of temperature extremes and their differences between the scenario simulations and the reference were calculated, for all scenarios, for the entire period and for each season. Results show a mean yearly increase in the number of summer and hot days and a decrease in the number of frost and ice days. Highest decline in the number of frost and ice days in autumn and an increase in spring is noticed. An highest increase in the number of summer and hot days is seen in summer. Future projections of these indices are relevant for studies on climate change impact in agriculture, tourism, health, transportation, road and building infrastructure.

Keywords

• RegCM
• temperature indices
• climate modeling
• Poland
• SRES