Evaluation of the Urban Weather Generator on the City of Toulouse (France)

Abstract

This article addresses the simulation of urban air temperatures with a focus on evaluating the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) model over Toulouse, France. As urban temperatures, influenced by factors like urbanization, anthropogenic heat release, and complex urban geometry, exhibit an urban heat island (UHI) effect, understanding and mitigating UHI become crucial. With increasing global warming and urban populations, aiding urban planners necessitates accurate simulations requiring data at the canyon level. The paper evaluates UWG’s performance in simulating air temperatures under realistic conditions, emphasizing an operational context and a non-specialist user’s perspective. The evaluation includes selecting the most suitable meteorological station, assessing the impact of the rural station choice, and conducting a sensitivity analysis of input parameters. The validation demonstrates good agreement, with a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.02 °C and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.73 °C. However, we highlight the fact that UWG performs better in a densely urbanized area, and exhibits limitations in sensitivity to urban surface parameter variations, particularly in less urbanized areas.

Keywords

• Urban Weather Generator
• urban heat island
• air temperature
• sensitivity analysis
• validation