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Anos-padrão e tendências da precipitação pluvial na região do Médio Solimões, Amazonas, Brasil
Abstract
The objective of this paper was to analyze the annual rainfall variability and to identify the standard-years of the Middle Solimões - AM region. For this, were collected rainfall data from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the National Water Agency (ANA) in the period 1992-2012 and applied statistical techniques such as the mean, coefficient of variation, percentile for year- standard, and non-parametric statistical tests such as Mann-Kendall and Petitt, with the aim of studying the trend, variability and rupture of the rainfall of the historical series. It was observed that the Northwest portion had the highest coefficients of variation, the dry and dry years in more than half of the meteorological stations were 2004/2005 and 2010/2011. The year 2012 was considered rainy in 50% of the seasons. The predominant frequency of the dry and dry-season standard years is related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and the temperature of the North Atlantic and the ENSO cold phase in the predominantly rainy years. Significant positive and negative trends were 18.8%. The spatial extent of the tendency to increase precipitation occurred in stations close to the portions of the municipality of Tefé, Carauari and Fonte Boa and the negative ones in the municipality of Coari. It is concluded that the rainfall trend in the Middle Solimões did not demonstrate a predominant spatial pattern in the period analyzed except in a few individual seasons, but it demonstrated the greater presence in the last decade of standard dry and dry years
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