MATHEMATICAL MODELS PREDICTING LEUKOPENIA AND NEUTROPENIA IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC HEPATITIS C IN THE BACKGROUND INTERFERONCONTAINING SCHEMES

Abstract

Currently in the Russian Federation or chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are still relevant Interferon-based regimens. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of baseline characteristics and prognosis of the patient HCV genotype 1 for the development of leukopenia (LP) and neutropenia (NP). We investigated factors such as sex, age, body mass index (BMI), viral load, genotype of Interleukin-28 B (IL-28B), the initial level of leukocytes and neutrophils, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), fibrosis, duration of infection, presence of previous therapy. Absolute values of leukocytes and neutrophils were analyzed on 4, 12, 24, 48 weeks of therapy, and at 4, 12, 24 weeks after antiviral treatment with protease inhibitors (PI) 1 and 2 generation. Prognostic criteria were identified, indicating the possible development of the LP and NP expressed during treatment with interferon: female gender, low initial load, TT-genotype of IL-28B, the initial level of white blood cells and neutrophils below 5,7×109/L and 3,4×109/L, respectively. Mathematical models predicting the onset of LP and NP, formalized in the form of decision trees were also constructed. These models have shown the greatest potential for practical use in view of highest accuracy and reliability.

Keywords

• chronic hepatitis c
• antiviral therapy
• genotype 1
• protease inhibitors 1 and 2 generation
• interferon-based regimens
• adverse events
• leukopenia
• neutropenia
• prognosis
• mathematical models
• decision trees