Water availability forecasting for Naryn River using ground-based and satellite snow cover data

Abstract

The main source of river nourishment in arid regions of Central Asia is the melting of seasonal snow accu‑ mulated in mountains during the cold period. In this study, we analyzed data on seasonal snow cover by ground‑based observations from Kyrgyzhydromet network, as well as from MODIS satellite imagery for the period of 2000–2015. This information was used to compile the forecast methods of water availability of snow‑ice and ice‑snow fed rivers for the vegetation period. The Naryn river basin was chosen as a study area which is the main tributary of Syrdarya River and belongs to the Aral Sea basin. The representative mete‑ orological stations with ground‑based observations of snow cover were identified and regression analysis between mean discharge for the vegetation period and number of snow covered days, maximum snow depth based on in‑situ data as well as snow cover area based on MODIS images was conducted. Based on this infor‑ mation, equations are derived for seasonal water availability forecasting using multiple linear regression anal‑ ysis. Proposed equations have high correlation coefficients (R = 0.89÷0.92 and and fore‑ casting accuracy. The methodology was implemented in Kyrgyzhydromet and is used for forecasting of water availability in Naryn basin and water inflow into Toktogul Reservoir.

Keywords

• naryn river basin
• modis satellite images
• seasonal forecast
• snow cover
• snow depth