First Trimester Prediction of Gestational Diabetes using a Predictive Model of Biochemical Parameters- A Longitudinal Study

Abstract

Introduction: Current international guidelines recommend screening for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) between 24-28 weeks of gestational age. It has been proven that early diagnosis and prompt treatment can effectively reduce and can even avoid many of the maternal and foetal complications. There are no accepted methods of testing before the recommended 24-28 weeks which can predict the development of GDM. Aim: To develop a risk based predictive model using clinical and biochemical parameters for predicting the development of GDM in the first trimester. Materials and Methods: This longitudinal prospective observational study was conducted in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology at the SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kancheepuram, Tamil Nadu, India from January 2017 to July 2018 and included 120 pregnant women with gestational age 3.35 mg/dL showed sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 84.2% for predicting GDM. Predictive modelling showed that model containing uric acid, creatinine and albumin had a higher correlation (r=0.82) with Plasma Glucose (PG) as compared to other models containing uric acid alone or uric acid and creatinine. Conclusion: It is possible to predict the development of GDM early in the first trimester using this predictive model of biochemical parameters with high accuracy.

Keywords

• creatinine
• diabetes mellitus
• pregnancy
• uric acid