Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model

Abstract

A “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)” monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) model with the directed acyclic graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R0/Re) and to assess the epidemic spread of monkeypox across the globe. The maximum estimated R0/Re was 1.16 (1.15–1.17), 1.20 (1.20–1.20), 1.34 (1.34–1.35), 1.33 (1.33–1.33) and 2.52 (2.41–2.66) in the United States, Spain, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The values of R0/Re were below 1 after August 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. The PHEIC of the global spreading of human monkeypox has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment.

Keywords

• monkeypox
• Bayesian SIR
• directed acyclic graphic method
• reproductive number