Antalya'nın Termal Konfor Özellikleri, İklim Model Verileri Kullanılarak Gelecek Projeksiyonları ve Turizme Etkileri

Abstract

Climate data has a crucial role for planning and mitigation activities in the tourism. Trends in the Physiologically Equivalent Temperatures (FES) will provide important information to tourism. In this study hourly temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and radiation data between1960-2017 and daily projection data between2018-2099 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used for Antalya. PET and mPET have been calculated by using RayMan software. The R² of winter, spring, summer and autumn have been found 1.00, 0.99, 1.00, 0.98 respectively which shows a well co-relationship. mPET values were found higher than PET in Antalya in the winter and lower in summer. There are increasing trends in both indices in both scenarios. According to RCP8.5, in winter, comfortable years may occur in Manavgat, Finike, Demre and Kemer. The results show, beside the comfortable spring, comfort will emerge on coasts in winter. Korkuteli and Elmalı will complement decreasing comfort in autumn.

Keywords

• pet
• mpet
• trend
• tourism
• antalyapet
• antalya