MaxEnt Modeling and the Impact of Climate Change on <i>Pistacia chinensis</i> Bunge Habitat Suitability Variations in China

Abstract

Climate change impacts the world’s biota, creating a critical issue for scientists, conservationists, and decision makers. Pistacia chinensis Bunge (Anacardiaceae) is an economical importantly species with strong drought resistance. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. By using 365 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographical distribution were analyzed. The results indicate that water vapor pressure, precipitation of wettest quarter, normalized difference vegetation index, and isothermality were the most influential environmental factors determining the existence of P. chinensis. In future climate change, MaxEnt predicted that inappropriate habitats of P. chinensis show a decreasing trend, whereas moderately and highly appropriate habitat areas exhibited an increasing trend. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher latitude and altitude. Our results might be applied in a variety of contexts, including discovering previously unreported P. chinensis places where it may appear in the future, or possible areas where the species could be cultivated, thus contributing to the preservation and protection of this species.

Keywords

• global warming
• MaxEnt
• suitable habitat
• <i>Pistacia chinensis</i>
• climate change
• potential geographic distribution