Carbon-neutral power system enabled e-kerosene production in Brazil in 2050

Abstract

Abstract Rich in renewable resources, extensive acreage, and bioenergy expertise, Brazil, however, has no established strategies for sustainable aviation fuels, particularly e-kerosene. We extend the lens from the often-studied economic feasibility of individual e-kerosene supply chains to a system-wide perspective. Employing energy system analyses, we examine the integration of e-kerosene production into Brazil’s national energy supplies. We introduce PyPSA-Brazil, an open-source energy system optimisation model grounded in public data. This model integrates e-kerosene production and offers granular spatial resolution, enabling federal-level informed decisions on infrastructure locations and enhancing transparency in Brazilian energy supply scenarios. Our findings indicate that incorporating e-kerosene production can bolster system efficiency as Brazil targets a carbon-neutral electricity supply by 2050. The share of e-kerosene in meeting kerosene demand fluctuates between 2.7 and 51.1%, with production costs varying from 113.3 to 227.3 €/MWh. These costs are influenced by factors such as biokerosene costs, carbon pricing, and export aspirations. Our findings are relevant for Brazilian policymakers championing aviation sustainability and offer a framework for other countries envisioning carbon-neutral e-kerosene production and export.