Spring Precipitation Deficiency in Poland and Its Temporal and Spatial Variability in the Context of Agricultural Needs

Abstract

Deficient precipitation (dPr) in the growing season, especially in critical periods, affects plant condition and determines the quality and quantity of obtained yields. Knowledge about the variability and distribution of dPr is essential to mitigate its effect on agricultural soils and on crop and livestock production. The goal of the work is to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of spring precipitation deficiency and also to indicate the zones of risk and variability of its occurrence in Poland. It was assumed that dPr occurred when total monthly precipitation in a given year accounted for ≤75% of the total multi-year mean (1951–2018). In the spring season, the multi-year mean of the area covered by deficient precipitation (ACDP) amounted to 33% and fluctuated between approximately 31% in May and approximately 35% in March. The study distinguished four zones in Poland that vary in terms of the risk and variability of spring precipitation deficiency. The obtained results may be used, for example, to assess the needs for irrigation in the changing climate conditions, to model the growing season and yields of cultivated plants, and to select adaptation measures for agriculture in response to climate change.

Keywords

• climate change
• meteorological drought
• precipitation
• spatial distribution
• temporal trend