Bayesian Statistical Method Enhance the Decision-Making for Imperfect Preventive Maintenance with a Hybrid Competing Failure Mode

Abstract

The study aims to provide a Bayesian statistical method with natural conjugate for facilities’ preventive maintenance scheduling related to the hybrid competing failure mode. An effective preventive maintenance strategy not only can improve a system’s health condition but also can increase a system’s efficiency, and therefore a firm needs to make an appropriate strategy for increasing the utilization of a system with reasonable costs. In the last decades, preventive maintenance issues of deteriorating systems have been studied in the related literature, and hundreds of maintenance/replacement models have been created. However, few studies focused on the issue of hybrid deteriorating systems which are composed of maintainable and non-maintainable failure modes. Moreover, due to the situations of the scarcity of historical failure data, the related analyses of preventive maintenance would be difficult to perform. Based on the above two reasons, this study proposed a Bayesian statistical method to deal with such preventive maintenance problems. Non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) with power law failure intensity functions are employed to describe the system’s deterioration behavior. Accordingly, the study can provide useful ways to help managers to make effective decisions for preventive maintenance. To apply the proposed models in actual cases, the study provides solution algorithms and a computerized architecture design for decision-makers to realize the computerization of decision-making.

Keywords

• Bayesian statistics
• non-homogeneous Poisson process
• Monte Carlo integration
• preventive maintenance
• hybrid failure modes