The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over Lake Titicaca Basin Based on CMORPH

Abstract

This paper examines the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) over Lake Titicaca basin (LTb) during the summertime months based on the high spatial–temporal resolution (8 × 8 km2 and hourly) estimates of the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH). This analysis was carried out using observations from rain gauges (RgSENAMHI) as a reference for the period 2002 to 2013. The accuracy of the CMORPH product was tested with graphical comparisons and several statistical metrics, such as correlation coefficient, bias, and root mean square error. Spatial maps of these metrics and of the diurnal cycle were developed to assess the spatial dependency in the CMORPH accuracy over the LTb. On average, 43% of the total RgSENAMHI variation was explained by the CMORPH. The correlation between the CMORPH and RgSENAMHI amounts was positive over the southeastern and northern LTb and negative in the central and southern LTb. An underestimation bias was observed over most of the LTb areas, and an overestimation bias was observed at some stations (e.g., Lagunillas, Isla Suana, and Desaguadero stations). The total bias decreased when approaching the lake attaining its minimum value over the mountains consistent with previous studies. Overall, the CMORPH was able to capture the spatial patterns of rainfall over the LTb. Over the surrounding lake area, the plateau, and high mountain areas, precipitation peaks were in the late afternoon, while over low areas, such as the valleys and Lake Titicaca, it peaked around midnight to early morning. This result suggests that the DCP is closely related to the local circulation resulting from a response due to solar radiation and the complex orography. On the other hand, the high resolution CMORPH technique can depict finer regional details, such as the less coherent phase pattern over a few regions.

Keywords

• CMORPH
• DCP
• Lake Titicaca