LIMITATIONS ON ICAO RISK MATRIX APPLICATION IN SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT

Abstract

The article analyzes the benefits and drawbacks of the matrix of consequences and probability (ICAO risk matrix) as a method of safety risk assessment. The ICAO matrix is a qualitative method of risk management based on expert assessments of the degree of probability of individual possible events and of their consequences. The method is simple and easy to use, but can only assess separate differential risks.The article shows the failure of using the ICAO matrix for quantitative risk assessment of «past events» and deviations in the operational activity of the airline and getting an integrated risk of the airline and its monitoring.The article also describes the limitations of this method in solving the tasks of corrective measures prioritization in case of negative correlation between the probability and severity of consequences of events.

Keywords

• риск для безопасности полетов
• вероятность
• последствия
• матрица риска