Evidence of sweet corn yield losses from rising temperatures

Abstract

Abstract Crop production is sensitive to anomalous weather conditions, but vegetable crops can be highly sensitive to environmental changes. Using sweet corn data collected on 16,040 fields over a 27-year period, we: (a) estimate yield sensitivities to changes in growing season temperature and total precipitation, (b) estimate critical thresholds in non-linear temperature effects on sweet corn yield across diverse environments, and (c) quantify yield losses from surpassing the upper temperature threshold during anthesis in sweet corn. Our results show growing-season temperatures exceeding 30 $$^\circ{\rm C} $$ ∘ C were detrimental to crop yield. Each additional degree day spent above 30 $$^\circ{\rm C} $$ ∘ C during anthesis reduced crop yields by 0.5% and 2% in irrigated and rainfed fields, respectively. This study shows evidence for sweet corn yield losses across broad spatial domains in the wake of climate change and underscores the urgency to accelerate crop adaptation strategies to sustain production of this highly popular crop.